Overview
- In the U.S., the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is about 6.18% and major forecasters project averages near 6% in 2026, with a drop below 6% described as possible by a Realtor.com economist.
- NAR expects a rebound in U.S. transactions next year with home sales rising roughly 14% and national prices up about 4% as activity builds.
- First-time buyers remain squeezed, accounting for just 21% of sales in July 2024–June 2025 with a median entry age of 40, and many struggle to save due to high rents and student debt.
- In the UK, a Bank of England cut has fed through to sub‑4% fixed-rate offers, and lenders and agents forecast 2%–4% price growth in 2026 with first-time buyers driving activity and rent increases slowing to roughly 2%–3.5%.
- Supply-side limits persist as U.S. builders hold back under high costs and growing inventories and UK sales still take more than 200 days from listing to exchange, with economic uncertainty weighing on confidence.