Overview
- House Republican leadership canceled the planned late‑September voting weeks, removing critical floor time and making pre‑midterm passage of the CLARITY Act far less likely.
- The Senate still plans a cloture vote on September 15 that must reach 60 votes to advance the bill to a final floor vote, a procedural hurdle that will likely decide the bill’s fate this session.
- Prediction markets have slashed the bill’s odds and several anonymous traders have wagered more than $1.5 million against passage, signaling market skepticism about Congress meeting the timeline.
- Negotiators remain deadlocked over ethics restrictions for senior officials and stablecoin yield rules, two substantive fights that have blocked agreement between the House and Senate texts.
- With legislation at risk, the SEC and CFTC are moving ahead with rulemaking such as the SEC’s “Regulation Crypto Assets,” and lawmakers now regard the post‑midterm lame‑duck session as the bill’s last realistic chance.