Overview
- Senate passed the reconciliation package 51–50 on July 1, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tiebreaking vote on deep Medicaid and provider tax cuts.
- The bill enshrines about $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over ten years, extending Trump-era breaks and adding new deductions for tips, overtime and seniors.
- Nonpartisan CBO estimates show the package would cut Medicaid spending by $1.1 trillion through work requirements and provider tax caps, potentially leaving nearly 12 million people uninsured.
- House Republicans, holding a 220–212 majority, can tolerate just three defections and are pressing holdouts like Reps. Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson to secure passage.
- Speaker Mike Johnson plans the final vote for Wednesday or Thursday even as CBO forecasts a $3.3 trillion deficit increase and storm-related flight disruptions threaten attendance.