Overview

• Enhanced subsidies are scheduled to expire at year-end, and KFF–Peterson analyses project average out-of-pocket premium increases of roughly 75% to 80% for subsidized enrollees in 2026.
• The House passed a funding bill on Friday that excludes an extension of the credits, sending the question to the Senate with an October 1 deadline to keep the government funded.
• Marketplace insurers’ preliminary 2026 filings request a median 18% increase in gross premiums, with roughly four percentage points tied to anticipated enrollment losses if subsidies lapse.
• Middle-income consumers above 400% of the federal poverty level would lose eligibility for any tax credits and face a double hit of higher premiums and exposure to full rate increases.
• Researchers caution that coverage losses could be substantial if costs spike, with one study estimating about 3.7 million people could become uninsured without the enhanced credits.