Overview

• Meteorological agencies anticipate above-average monsoon rains across the HKH from June to September, heightening the threat of flash floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods.
• Temperatures are predicted to run up to 2°C above seasonal norms, accelerating glacier and snow melt that may boost short-term river flows and raise flood risks.
• Data from 1980 to 2024 show nearly three-quarters of regional flood events occur during the monsoon, and the World Meteorological Organisation forecasts wetter-than-normal monsoons through 2029.
• Lower rainfall projections for water-stressed areas such as Afghanistan could worsen food and water insecurity in regions already facing high malnutrition.
• International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development researchers call for expanded impact-based early warning systems and increased investment in disaster preparedness and climate services.