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Hotter-than-expected inflation delays RBA’s next rate cut

The April rise in underlying inflation to 2.8% has prompted forecasts to push the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next cut to August.

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Shoppers walk out of a mall in Sydney's CBD in Sydney, Australia, July 3, 2024. REUTERS/Jaimi Joy/File Photo
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Overview

  • Headline consumer price inflation held at 2.4% in the 12 months to April, marking the third straight month within the RBA’s 2–3% target range.
  • The trimmed mean measure, which the RBA prefers for its stability, rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures.
  • Housing costs continued to climb and egg prices jumped 18.6% due to bird flu outbreaks, contributing to the stronger inflation figures.
  • After cutting the cash rate by 25 basis points in May to 3.85%, the RBA’s next policy decision is now expected in August rather than July.
  • Governor Michele Bullock highlighted US tariffs as a disinflationary risk and warned that productivity trends will be crucial for guiding future rate moves.