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Hot Wholesale Inflation Shifts Fed Cut Odds as Global Equities Diverge Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit

A 0.9% rise in U.S. wholesale prices has prompted investors to recalibrate rate-cut expectations, assessing varied market leadership ahead of the Alaska summit between Presidents Trump and Putin.

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The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 7, 2025.   REUTERS/staff/ File Photo
The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019.   REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File Photo

Overview

  • U.S. producer prices jumped 0.9% in July, the strongest monthly advance since mid-2022, driving CME FedWatch odds for a September 25-basis-point cut down to 92.6% and eliminating bets on a 50-basis-point move.
  • Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosure of over 5 million UnitedHealth shares lifted UNH stock more than 10%, briefly pushing the Dow Jones to a new intraday high of 45,203.52.
  • Westpac’s quarterly profit rose 14% to AUD 1.9 billion and Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, fueling five consecutive record closes for the S&P/ASX 200 above the 8,900-point level.
  • Applied Materials trimmed its guidance citing weak China demand and tariff uncertainty, weighing on global semiconductor and equipment stocks.
  • Investors are monitoring the Alaska meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin for signs of a Ukraine ceasefire that could reshape risk appetite and energy markets.