Overview

• U.S. producer prices jumped 0.94% month-over-month and 3.29% year-over-year in July, far exceeding market forecasts
• Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, signalling a tighter U.S. labour market that undercuts rate-cut bets
• The dollar index climbed past 98 after the data release, driving the peso down roughly 0.8% to about 18.77 per dollar
• FedWatch-implied odds still assign over 90% probability to a 25 basis-point Fed cut in September, while expectations for a 50bp move have eased despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments
• Investors are awaiting further U.S. data and Fed officials’ remarks at Jackson Hole to assess the timing and scale of policy moves and potential market swings