Overview
- Ship traffic and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are still far below prewar norms as major shipowners avoid routine transits and many vessels turn off tracking systems.
- The U.S. administration says daily flows have recovered to roughly 17–19 million barrels, but independent trackers report much lower verified volumes, leaving a major gap in official and private data.
- The IMF warned that the prolonged disruption is raising inflation and borrowing costs and increasing debt‑servicing pressure for developing and emerging economies.
- Asian governments and companies are expanding strategic reserves, storage deals and new pipelines while Gulf states and Iraq enlarge alternative export routes, but analysts say these measures cannot fully replace Hormuz for LNG and container traffic.
- Diplomatic friction is growing: China opposed a G20 statement on free passage and Iraq’s August export uptick provided only partial relief to Asian refiners, complicating a coordinated international solution.