Overview
- Iran’s state media said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and vessel transits have dropped to single digits per day, sharply reducing routine crude exports from the Gulf.
- The International Energy Agency raised its third‑quarter supply deficit forecast and said global oil inventories will be drawn down much faster than previously estimated.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed an unexpected roughly 17.4 million‑barrel weekly crude build, driven by weaker exports and higher imports, which capped near‑term price gains.
- OPEC approved a modest 188,000 barrels‑per‑day production increase for September but member output gains face logistical and security hurdles as regional attacks and higher insurance costs raise shipping expenses.
- Diplomatic reports say Oman and Pakistan are facilitating talks with Iran that could reopen the strait, but a stalemate on conditions and ongoing attacks on tankers and refineries leave Asian refiners short of cargoes and consumers at risk of tighter fuel supplies.