Overview
- Salesforce estimates U.S. online spending on Thanksgiving will reach $8.6 billion, up 6% from last year, with spending up 5.8% by 2 p.m. ET.
- The National Retail Federation projects November–December retail sales of $1.01–$1.02 trillion and a record 186.9 million shoppers over Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday, with average planned spending near $890 per person.
- Even with strong turnout, 42% of consumers say they plan to cut holiday spending compared with last year, according to Nationwide.
- Farmers and small businesses report higher input costs tied to tariffs, and the Farm Bureau says wholesale turkey prices are about 40% higher due to avian illness.
- Surveys show 62% of shoppers are changing behavior because of tariff-related price uncertainty, 42% prefer credit cards this season, and retailers expect weaker seasonal hiring than in 2024.