Overview
- The National Retail Federation projects November–December sales up 3.7%–4.2% to $1.01–$1.02 trillion, with growth driven more by higher prices than unit volume.
- A record 186.9 million people are expected to shop from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, even as many plan to be selective about purchases.
- Surveys from Deloitte, PwC and others show tighter budgets, with consumers planning to spend less and prioritizing deals, while NRF pegs average per-person spend at about $890.
- Analysts report fewer and shallower promotions as retailers protect margins, reflecting a K‑shaped pattern where higher‑income households sustain spending and lower‑income shoppers pull back.
- Adobe expects online sales to rise about 5.3% to $253.4 billion and reports a surge in generative‑AI referrals, while tariff volatility has pushed retailers to pull forward shipments this year and warns of greater price pressure risk in 2026.