Overview

• Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects retailers will add fewer than 500,000 workers in Q4 2025, down from about 543,100 last year and the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years.
• Hiring signals remain subdued, with Target, Macy’s, Burlington, Aldi and 1‑800‑Flowers yet to release counts as Target emphasizes extra hours for staff and a 43,000‑member on‑demand pool.
• Announced plans so far are modest, including 50,000 at Spirit Halloween, about 32,000 at Bath & Body Works, and 4,600 at logistics firm Geodis, while Kohl’s confirmed hiring without a figure.
• The outlook reflects a softer backdrop, with just 22,000 jobs added nationwide in August and consumer research from PwC pointing to a roughly 5% pullback in planned holiday spending.
• Challenger also expects transportation and warehousing hiring to lag as employers lean on automation, flexible scheduling and year‑round staffing rather than large seasonal surges.