Particle.news

Holiday Lull Keeps Asia Steady as Soft U.S. CPI Lifts Cut Bets and Japan GDP Disappoints

Focus now turns to upcoming FOMC minutes followed by core PCE for confirmation of the easing narrative.

A person stands in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
Trader Fred Demarco, right, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
A person walks in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

Overview

  • Futures pricing points to a high probability of a June Federal Reserve rate cut with roughly 62 basis points of easing seen for the year as U.S. CPI cooled to about 2.4% year on year.
  • Japan’s economy grew about 0.1% annualised in the fourth quarter, well below forecasts, intensifying talk of additional fiscal support under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
  • Trading was thin with markets in China, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States closed for holidays, leaving regional moves muted.
  • Australian shares opened firmer then wavered as earnings landed, with tech stocks rebounding and JB Hi‑Fi reporting a 7.3% rise in first‑half sales and an 8.1% lift in earnings.
  • Treasury Wine Estates posted a A$649.4 million statutory loss and scrapped its interim dividend, while Rio Tinto halted Guinea’s Simandou operations after a fatality, pressuring major miners.