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Hochul’s Lead Over Stefanik Shrinks to 14 Points, Poll Finds

Stefanik’s rising support among independents signals a more unified Republican field.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) walks through Statuary Hall before a vote on the Republican budget plan at the U.S. Capitol on April 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
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Overview

  • The Siena Research Institute polled 813 registered New York voters from August 4–7 and found Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of Rep. Elise Stefanik by 45% to 31% within a ±4.2% margin of error.
  • Hochul’s advantage has narrowed by about 10 points since June, down from a roughly 23–25 point lead.
  • Independent voters now favor Stefanik by 3 points, and she has edged ahead in downstate suburban districts while closing the gap in upstate regions.
  • Roughly 41% of respondents say they are unfamiliar with Stefanik; her favorability hovers below 30% and only 29% believe she has the right experience to be governor.
  • Republicans have coalesced around Stefanik after Rep. Mike Lawler opted for reelection, but a sizable share of undecided voters and recognition gaps keep the race fluid.