Overview

• The latest Siena University survey of 813 registered voters finds Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Rep. Elise Stefanik by 45% to 31%, down from a 23-point edge in June.
• GOP voters have coalesced behind Stefanik, and independents now favor her by a slim margin after previously leaning toward Hochul.
• Forty-one percent of respondents say they are unfamiliar with Stefanik, and only 29% believe she has the necessary experience to serve as governor.
• Hochul’s favorability has ticked up to roughly 42–44%, and her job-approval rating has improved to 53–42% since June.
• Hochul retains a significant structural advantage thanks to New York’s Democratic enrollment edge and her fundraising lead.