Overview

• Early monthly PAYE data indicates that income-earning non-dom departures have tracked the OBR’s forecast of 25% for those with trusts and 10% for those without
• Officials briefed on the HMRC figures offered mixed readings, with some saying exits are below projections while others see them on target
• The PAYE dataset excludes non-working high-net-worth individuals, potentially overlooking some of the wealthiest non-dom residents
• Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s abolition of non-dom status and extension of inheritance tax to overseas assets remains intact as early exit figures ease revenue concerns
• HMRC will publish definitive counts of departed non-doms when 2025-26 self-assessment returns are filed in January 2027, underscoring gaps in wealth taxation data