Overview
- Recent analysis argues that Nvidia-like outcomes are unlikely for IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc., citing past tech cycles that inflated early and then deflated before durable adoption.
- Pure-play quantum shares saw trailing 12‑month gains reach roughly 5,400% in 2025 before giving back a portion of those advances as profit-taking set in.
- Industry timelines still point to around 2030 for meaningful commercial availability, reinforcing that current revenues and use cases remain limited.
- IonQ highlights 99.99% two‑qubit gate fidelity with its trapped‑ion approach, but error rates are still too high for broad commercial deployment.
- Volatility remains elevated, with IonQ up about 30% for the year after having been roughly 96% higher only weeks earlier.