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High-Resolution Model Forecasts Easter Island’s Ahu Tongariki Moai at Risk by 2080

Calls for engineering defenses or relocation of the moai have emerged without any coordinated policy response to the study’s findings.

Overview

  • A peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Cultural Heritage uses a detailed digital twin of the island’s eastern coast to simulate future wave impacts under sea level rise scenarios.
  • Researchers project that seasonal waves driven by rising seas could inundate Ahu Tongariki’s 15 moai statues as early as 2080 and threaten about 50 other Rapa Nui cultural sites by the end of the century.
  • Ahu Tongariki, the largest ceremonial platform in Rapa Nui National Park, attracts tens of thousands of visitors each year and lies within a UNESCO World Heritage site.
  • The 1960 magnitude-9.5 Chile earthquake and ensuing tsunami serve as a historical precedent for ocean-driven damage to the moai, highlighting the vulnerability of coastal heritage.
  • Proposed adaptation measures include coastline armoring, breakwaters or relocating the statues, but funding, governance arrangements and local community decisions remain undecided.