Overview

• Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem declared on April 18 that the group will not disarm, rejecting external pressure and linking the issue to Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction efforts.
• Under the November 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah was required to pull back north of the Litani River, while Israel was to withdraw from southern Lebanon, though it retains five strategic positions.
• The Lebanese army, supported by U.S. mediation, has taken over 190 of Hezbollah's 265 positions south of the Litani River, signaling progress in consolidating state authority.
• Lebanese President Joseph Aoun aims to make 2025 the year of restricting arms to the state, advocating for dialogue with Hezbollah to achieve this goal.
• Analysts suggest that Hezbollah's weakened state, following leadership losses and extensive damage during the Gaza war spillover, could make disarmament more plausible than ever before.