Heavy Training Storms Raise Flash Flood Risk Across Southern Plains

Overview

• The Storm Prediction Center issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Watches on Oct. 13–14 to cover threats of very large hail and damaging winds, and clusters of 60–75+ mph gusts and 2+ inch hail were observed in parts of West Texas and Oklahoma.
• Forecasters say the dominant hazard now is training thunderstorms producing hourly rates of 1–2 inches with another 2–5 inches likely in parts of central Oklahoma and northwest Texas, which will make flash flooding likely in saturated and urban areas.
• WPC mesoscale discussions and high‑resolution models show precipitable water values near 1.7–2.0 inches, a moisture feed from the western Gulf and upper‑level flow linked to Hurricane Simon, and guidance that supports additional 2–4 inch pockets this evening.
• Although the tornado threat is low, brief tornadoes remain possible with any strong surface‑based updrafts, and the short‑term severe wind and hail risk now depends on where clusters and bowing segments consolidate.
• Because soils and drainage systems in parts of western Oklahoma and nearby Texas were already saturated from earlier 4–8 inch totals, another round of heavy, training rain could produce localized to widespread flash flooding and strained urban drainage.