Overview
- A slowed upper-level low shifts the highest rain and thunderstorm chances into Sunday night through Monday, with storms organizing in West Texas and spreading east.
- NOAA highlights a Level 2 of 4 excessive-rainfall risk for much of North Central Texas, where 1–3 inches are forecast and isolated totals up to 5 inches are possible from Abilene through the DFW area to Texarkana.
- Soils already soaked by last week’s downpours increase runoff sensitivity, with the Weather Prediction Center noting marginal to slight flood risk across parts of Central Texas including the I‑35 corridor.
- Houston’s best window for storms arrives late Monday into early Tuesday with roughly 60% coverage, generally less than 1 inch of rain and isolated 2-inch pockets that could trigger urban street flooding; a few storms may bring hail and strong winds.
- Rain tapers from west to east by late Monday into Tuesday as a stronger Pacific/cold front advances, setting up a cooler, drier stretch for Thanksgiving.