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Heat Pumps Overtake Gas as CO2 Hike and Cold Year Lift German Heating Bills

With costs rising, Berlin plans a revised building‑modernization law by February.

Overview

  • Sales data indicate a market shift in 2025, with 284,000 heat pumps sold versus 230,000 gas systems, as installers expand capacity and training for heat‑pump deployments.
  • Germany’s CO2 levy for heating fuels rose at the start of 2026 to up to €65 per tonne, increasing costs for oil, coal and gas in cities where gas still dominates, including Wilhelmshaven, Oldenburg and large metros such as Frankfurt and Cologne.
  • A Verivox analysis finds a model household needed 8.9% more heat in 2025 due to cold spells, driving gas‑heating costs up about 12.7% (€247) year over year, while oil‑heated homes saw roughly a 3.8% rise.
  • Energy service firm Techem projects notable 2025 cost increases, including Bavaria at +11.8% overall and district heating at +16.5%, with Hesse near +8%, cautioning that outcomes vary by fuel and local conditions.
  • As the government readies the new Gebäudemodernisierungsgesetz, The Left party urges federal price oversight and cites checks of 17,586 bills in which roughly one quarter of verifiable cases contained errors.