Overview
- Independent WWF commission of Prognos modelled a 15‑year example and found heat pumps cost about €56,815 versus €61,118 for a new gas heater in a representative partially renovated single‑family home in late October 2026.
- The calculation includes purchase, operation, maintenance, state support and CO₂ charges and finds heat pumps remain cheaper across the scenarios studied when subsidies and carbon prices are accounted for.
- Household outcomes vary widely because one‑time retrofit items such as dismantling the old boiler, electrical upgrades, foundations, storage and piping can change project costs more than the device price.
- Under current German rules heat pumps are exempt from routine chimney‑sweep inspections under the KÜO, which can save households tens to several hundred euros yearly, though inspections still apply if solid‑fuel appliances remain, for hybrids, or for buildings with six or more flats under GModG §60a.
- Public support from KfW/BEG can cover a large share of eligible costs — reported up to roughly 70% in some offers — and experts urge a predictable, gradual phase‑down of subsidies plus better planning, commissioning and operation to ensure the modelled savings materialize.