Overview

• New analysis projects the NHS would fall just short of the 18-week standard by the end of the parliament, despite incremental progress over the past year.
• Official data show the waiting list edged down from about 7.6 million to 7.4 million and the share treated within 18 weeks rose from 58.8% to 61.3% between July 2024 and July 2025.
• The Health Foundation estimates the list could drop to roughly 4.7 million by July 2029, with 92% of patients treated within about 20.3 weeks, missing the headline pledge.
• Interim goals for March 2026 are forecast to be narrowly missed at 63.4% treated within 18 weeks (target 65%) and about 2.2% waiting over 52 weeks (target under 1%).
• Risks and uncertainties include faster-than-expected growth in referrals, potential further strikes, rising unreported removals, and an e-referrals glitch that deletes inactive referrals after 180 days; DHSC cites 5 million extra appointments, a 220,000 reduction in the list, and a 2.7% productivity rise as evidence reforms are working.