Overview

• The analysis finds the NHS would likely fall just short of the pledge to meet the 18‑week standard by the end of the parliament, despite recent gains.
• The overall waiting list stands at about 7.4 million, down from 7.6 million last year, with a projection of roughly 4.7 million by the next general election on current trends.
• Interim goals for March 2026 are expected to be narrowly missed, with around 63.4% seen within 18 weeks and roughly 2.2% waiting over 52 weeks against stricter targets.
• Researchers flag risks from rising referrals and possible further industrial action, and they note data gaps including an e‑referrals rule that deletes inactive referrals after 180 days.
• The Department of Health and Social Care cites over five million extra appointments, a 220,000 reduction in the list, and £26 billion in additional funding to accelerate recovery.