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14h ago

Hayabusa2’s 2031 Target Shrinks to 11 Meters and Spins Every 5 Minutes, Study Finds

The revised profile raises the risk of a landing and pushes mission planners to reassess operations well before the scheduled rendezvous.

Asteroid 1998 KY26 shown against VLT dome (left) and Hayabusa2 touchdown (right).
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Overview

  • A Nature Communications study using 2024 close-approach data and earlier radar shows 1998 KY26 is about 11 meters across, brighter than assumed, and rotates roughly every five minutes.
  • The asteroid’s tiny size and rapid spin complicate a ‘kiss’ touchdown, with researchers warning of navigation and instrument-integration challenges on a target that reflects a lot of light.
  • JAXA still aims to meet the object in July 2031, but the spacecraft is comparable in scale to the asteroid and has limited propellant, narrowing maneuvering and sampling options.
  • The characterization relied on coordinated observations by major ground-based telescopes, including ESO’s VLT, Gemini South, SOAR, and the Víctor M. Blanco telescope.
  • Further ground-based data before arrival are unlikely, though the James Webb Space Telescope may secure brief observation windows in 2028 and 2029 to refine key parameters.