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Hayabusa2 Target Found to Be 11 Meters and a 5‑Minute Spinner, Complicating 2031 Touchdown

Peer-reviewed measurements from a 2024 close approach now force mission planners to reassess a landing attempt.

Overview

  • A Nature Communications study reports asteroid 1998 KY26 is roughly 11 meters across, highly reflective, and rotates in about five minutes, far smaller and faster than past estimates.
  • The revised profile comes from combining 2024 ground-based observations with prior radar data using ESO’s VLT, Gemini South, SOAR, and the Víctor M. Blanco telescope.
  • Researchers say the asteroid’s size is comparable to the Hayabusa2 spacecraft, making a brief touchdown far harder and potentially limiting operations to remote observations.
  • The surface appears bright and may be a solid rock, though a loosely bound rubble-pile structure cannot be ruled out, leaving key density and cohesion questions open.
  • JAXA still targets a July 2031 rendezvous, and additional opportunities such as prospective JWST observations in 2028–2029 could refine parameters that inform the final operations plan.