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Hayabusa2 Target 1998 KY26 Is Just 11 Meters Across With 5-Minute Days, Complicating 2031 Visit

A peer-reviewed analysis of coordinated telescope and radar data confirms a bright, rapid rotator, prompting a reassessment of any touchdown attempt.

Overview

  • Nature Communications reports that KY26 is roughly one third the previously estimated size, based on observations from ESO’s VLT and other Chilean facilities combined with prior radar data.
  • The asteroid shows a high-albedo surface, and researchers say it could be a solid rock or a loosely bound rubble pile, a distinction that likely requires in‑situ measurements to resolve.
  • JAXA’s team now faces significantly tougher approach and proximity operations, with study authors noting mission objectives and procedures for a brief surface contact may need revision.
  • Further ground-based constraints are unlikely before arrival, though proposed James Webb Space Telescope observations in 2028–29 could help confirm size and physical properties.
  • If Hayabusa2 reaches KY26 in 2031, it would mark the first spacecraft encounter with a decametre-scale asteroid, offering rare data relevant to planetary defense and small-body evolution.