Overview
- President Trump and NEC director Kevin Hassett say spring 2026 will bring the biggest refund season on record, crediting the One Big Beautiful Bill enacted in the summer.
- The law temporarily shields tips and overtime pay and adds a senior bonus deduction, and Hassett says tip and overtime workers alone could see refunds rise by a couple of thousand dollars.
- Because the IRS could not fully update forms and withholding after the law passed midyear, many taxpayers are expected to recoup the difference at filing.
- Analysts and tax-prep firms project household refunds could be about $1,000 higher than last year, when the average IRS refund was $3,052.
- Tax advisers urge year-end planning to meet income thresholds—such as the $6,000 senior bonus phasing out above $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for couples, and a full $40,000 SALT deduction below $500,000 household income—while some states have decoupled from the new federal relief on tips and overtime.