Overview
- Models point to a marked deterioration between Thursday 30 and Friday 31 October with heavy rain, intense thunderstorms and localized flash‑flood risk, especially over the North and Tyrrhenian sectors.
- The first and heaviest impacts are expected across the North‑West, Liguria and Tuscany with a later extension toward the Triveneto, while the far South, particularly Calabria and Sicily, is initially more sheltered.
- Strong scirocco winds near 60 km/h and a very rough Tyrrhenian Sea are forecast, with temperatures dipping and snowfall likely around 2,000 meters on the Alps.
- After a brief anticyclonic lull early in the week, clouds and light precipitation creep in on Wednesday before a sharper worsening arrives from late Wednesday into Thursday.
- Outlooks suggest the system stems from an Atlantic disturbance crossing Portugal, Spain and France before reaching Italy, followed by a general weekend improvement with lingering instability in the North‑West and possible fog in the North; separately, Hurricane Melissa has intensified to Category 4 with extreme rainfall projected over Jamaica and a severe threat to Cuba.