Overview
- A Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report says cocoa costs have more than doubled since early 2024, leaving U.S. Halloween chocolate prices elevated despite a pullback from last year’s peaks.
- The International Cocoa Organization reports a 12.9% global production drop and a 494,000 metric ton deficit — with Ivory Coast output down 25.3% and Ghana down 31.3% — and preliminary exporter assessments point to a further 10% decline for the 2025/26 crop year.
- Manufacturers are raising prices, trimming seasonal lines and shrinking package sizes, and analysts expect cocoa to stay expensive at least through the crop year ending September 2026.
- Recently applied U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% to 25% on major suppliers including Ecuador, Ivory Coast, the Dominican Republic and Ghana are adding to import costs for beans and cocoa products.
- Retail data and surveys show candy prices up roughly 8% from last year as more shoppers switch to non‑chocolate treats, hunt for discounts, and comparison‑shop, with NRF estimating $3.9 billion in Halloween candy spending.