Haddad Rechecks IR Math as Senate Weighs Paths and Pushes to Make Exemption Permanent

Overview

• Finance Minister Fernando Haddad reaffirmed the government’s near‑neutrality view but said the ministry will re-run the numbers and, if a R$1–2 billion gap is confirmed, back a complementary bill to preserve fiscal balance.
• Relator Renan Calheiros outlined five options in the Senate—approve as is, editorial tweaks, suppression of items, splitting the bill, or a separate compensating proposal—and said he aims to put the measure to a vote next week.
• A joint session of Congress was called for Oct. 30 to vote an LDO change that exempts the IR reform from the five‑year limit on tax benefits, allowing the new exemption to be permanent if enacted.
• Independent assessments diverge from the Finance Ministry: the IFI projects a roughly R$1 billion annual loss and the Senate consultancy up to R$4 billion, versus the government’s package of about R$31 billion in offsets focused on higher incomes.
• Senate leaders seek to approve a version that can go straight to presidential sanction to enable implementation in 2026, with Renan considering ‘fatiar’ the text so the core exemption and rate cuts advance immediately.