Haddad, Alcolumbre Move to Salvage Budget After IOF MP Collapse

Overview

• After a morning meeting, Fernando Haddad said Davi Alcolumbre signaled paths to align the 2026 LDO with new budget scenarios, noting the vote was delayed at the government’s request and that changing the fiscal target is not under consideration.
• The government will refile the MP’s “incontroversial” items as bills, led by tighter rules on tax credit compensation and federal cadastres that the Treasury says could yield about R$10 billion in 2025 and another R$10 billion in 2026.
• Expense controls set for revival include limits on Atestmed with telemedicine or in-person exams for longer claims, stricter seguro-defeso eligibility via municipal validation, adjustments to Comprev, and classifying Pé-de-Meia within the education funding floor.
• The Finance Ministry is drafting targeted revenue measures such as a standalone bill raising the levy on bets from 12% to 18%, higher taxation on fintechs, and a possible IOF decree on LCA/LCI, alongside a discussed R$7 billion cut to lawmakers’ amendments.
• Congress faces parallel pressures as Hugo Motta froze the “dosimetry” bill after Senate resistance and was met with “no amnesty” chants at a Rio event with Lula, Tarcísio de Freitas deflected questions and criticized fiscal policy, and Lula began consultations to fill Barroso’s STF seat with Jorge Messias cited as a leading option.