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Guinea-Bissau Heads to Nov. 23 Polls With Embalo Favored After Opposition Ban

Security forces brace for potential unrest in a coup-prone state shaped by a resurgent cocaine trade.

Guinea Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo addresses the 78th Session of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, U.S., September 21, 2023. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
Supporters of President Umaro Sissoco Embalo show a red keffiyeh bearing his image during a political rally in Bissau on November 11, 2025
Since coming to power, President Umaro Sissoco Embalo claims to have been the target of several coup attempts
Umaro Sissoco Embalo Embalo, 53, in favoured to win the election in the first round despite a term marked by more political instability

Overview

  • About 860,000 voters are set to choose a president and 102 lawmakers on November 23 from a field of 12 led by incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo.
  • The Supreme Court disqualified the PAIGC and its leader Domingos Simoes Pereira, drawing opposition claims of manipulation and tilting the race toward the incumbent.
  • Fernando Dias has emerged as the main opposition-backed challenger with PAIGC support, while former president Jose Mario Vaz also appears on the ballot.
  • Parliament has been dissolved since December 2023 and authorities report multiple coup plots including late-October arrests, with 6,780 security personnel, including ECOWAS forces, deployed for the vote.
  • Civil society flags weak oversight and restricted media after RTP Africa, RDP Africa and Lusa were expelled, as narcotics transit persists with a 2.63-ton cocaine seizure and a report calling the market booming.