Overview

• Cleveland has slashed a deficit that peaked at 15.5 games to trail Detroit by one, a turnaround that Elias says could set a modern record if it ends in a division title.
• Tarik Skubal faces Gavin Williams in Tuesday’s opener; Skubal has allowed one run with 32 strikeouts in 22 innings vs. Cleveland this year, while Williams owns a 2.15 ERA over 13 starts since July 6.
• The Guardians’ surge has been powered by a six-man rotation and elite run prevention (MLB-best 3.38 ERA since the break, 2.32 in September) despite closer Emmanuel Clase being on paid leave during an MLB betting probe.
• With six home games left, Cleveland holds the season-series edge 6-4 and needs one win to clinch that tiebreaker, plus it owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston for a wild-card spot.
• Fangraphs pegs Cleveland at roughly 36.7% to win the AL Central and about 59% to reach the postseason, as Detroit staggers at 26-37 since July 9 and heads to Boston after this series; the Tigers also DFA’d Charlie Morton, who was then reported to be acquired by Atlanta.