Overview
- GTRI projects total exports around USD 850 billion in FY26, leaving a gap of roughly USD 150 billion from the goal.
- Merchandise exports are expected to be largely flat, while services may top USD 400 billion and provide the main support.
- India’s shipments to the United States fell about 20.7–21% between May and November 2025 under steep tariffs, with further risk flagged unless penalties ease or a trade deal emerges.
- EU CBAM takes effect on January 1, 2026, with compliance already linked to a roughly 24% drop in steel exports to Europe and payments set via certificate surrender in 2027.
- With about 18 FTAs in place, GTRI urges prioritizing gains from existing deals, upgrading into medium‑ and high‑tech products, and tightening domestic execution to lift competitiveness.