Overview
- GTRI forecasts flat merchandise shipments in FY26, with services potentially exceeding $400 billion to provide the main cushion.
- Exports to the United States fell about 20.7% between May and November 2025 under steep U.S. tariffs, while sales to other destinations rose roughly 5.5%.
- The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism begins on January 1, 2026, and compliance has already reduced India’s steel exports to Europe by about 24%.
- The report advises prioritising execution of India’s 18 FTAs to secure tangible gains in electronics, engineering and textiles.
- GTRI urges a shift toward medium- and high‑tech products, deeper value chains and lower costs, while noting domestic growth indicators remain solid.