Overview
- Rebeca Grynspan increased her lead in the Security Council’s eighth informal straw poll, receiving 12 “encourage” votes and three “discourage” votes in results reported on Nov. 5, 2026.
- That poll used undifferentiated ballots that do not show how the five permanent members voted, leaving open the key question of whether any P5 country would issue a veto in a decisive, color‑coded round.
- A candidate needs at least nine Security Council votes and no veto from any P5 member to win the council’s recommendation to the General Assembly, so Grynspan’s 12 encourages are strong but not yet decisive.
- The UAE’s Lana Nusseibeh continues to face scrutiny over reported links between UAE‑linked actors and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, and Turkey’s late entrant Feridun Sinirlioglu did poorly in his debut poll with far more discourages than encourages.
- Diplomats say the P5 are intensifying behind‑the‑scenes consultations before the Dec. 31 handover, with informal regional rotation favoring Latin America and the possibility of the U.N.’s first female secretary‑general shaping the stakes for the final recommendation.