Overview
- Rebeca Grynspan increased her support to 12 "encourage" votes and three "discourage" votes in the Security Council's informal straw poll on Thursday, the best result she has recorded across eight ballots.
- The poll used undifferentiated ballots that do not show whether "discourage" votes came from the five permanent members, so it remains unclear if any P5 country has shifted its veto position.
- Other contenders kept pace: Rafael Grossi received nine encourage votes, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett eight, Lana Nusseibeh seven, and Turkey’s new nominee Feridun Sinirlioğlu drew only three encourage votes in his debut.
- Nusseibeh’s tally has held steady while reporting about alleged UAE links to recruitment of mercenaries for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces has intensified scrutiny of her candidacy.
- By long-standing practice the council must present one candidate with at least nine positive votes and no P5 discourages, so diplomats are now deepening private P5 negotiations to try to land a single, veto-acceptable nominee before the January transition.