Overview
- The Security Council conducted a fourth informal straw poll on Tuesday, Sept. 29, and diplomats reported that Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan increased her lead with 10 “encourage,” three “discourage” and two “no opinion” votes.
- Guyanese candidate Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi trailed closely with eight “encourage” votes each while recording higher numbers of “discourage” marks, according to diplomats.
- Under the Council’s process each of the 15 members labels candidates “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion,” and a candidate must win at least nine votes and avoid any veto from the five permanent members to be recommended to the General Assembly.
- Diplomats say divisions among the permanent members are decisive and could force a compromise pick because colour-coded ballots next will show whether any permanent member has effectively blocked a candidate without naming who did so.
- The Security Council’s choice must be ready before Antonio Guterres leaves office on December 31, 2026, and the next steps are further straw polls, colour-coded rounds to surface veto risk, and a formal recommendation to the 193-member General Assembly.