Overview

• Bureau of Labor Statistics data show grocery prices rose 0.6% in August and 2.7% from a year earlier, the sharpest monthly increase since 2022.
• Items with heavy import exposure are climbing fastest, with Brazilian coffee facing a 50% tariff as coffee prices jumped 3.6% in August and about 21% over the past year, while Mexican tomatoes now face a 17% levy and apples, lettuce and bananas also rose month over month.
• Tighter immigration enforcement is thinning the farm workforce—undocumented workers make up 42% of fruit and vegetable farm labor, the foreign-born labor force shrank by 1.2 million since January, and agricultural employment fell 6.5% from March to July—adding to production costs and lost harvests.
• Extreme weather is straining supplies, with hurricanes and drought pushing up orange prices and smaller cattle herds contributing to beef prices that rose 2.7% in August and 13.9% over the past year.
• Shoppers are trading down and leaning on promotions as Kroger brings back paper coupons, Republicans propose SNAP cuts that analysts say would reduce or eliminate benefits for roughly 4 million people a month, and the White House argues one month does not make a trend while Yale’s Budget Lab estimates current tariffs lift food prices about 3.4% in the short run.