Overview
- Government and academic measures diverge on the scale of increases, with USDA showing roughly a 40% year-over-year jump in wholesale turkey prices to about $1.32 per pound and a Purdue analysis estimating a 75% surge with an average near $2.05 per pound.
- Avian influenza has culled millions of birds in 2025 and remains a supply risk, though frozen inventories help cover holiday demand and experts caution that fresh or specialty birds could be tighter.
- Retailers are using loss-leader pricing and rewards to draw shoppers, with examples including Wegmans at 59 cents per pound with a qualifying spend, Lidl at 25 cents per pound via app coupon, Aldi at 77 cents, Target at 79 cents, Walmart at 84–97 cents, and free-turkey offers tied to spending or points at chains like Giant and BJ’s.
- Budget meal bundles proliferate, such as Walmart’s basket feeding 10 for $39.92 with a Butterball turkey at 97 cents per pound, Aldi’s $40 feast for 10, Target’s under-$20 kit for four, Amazon’s $25 package for five, and Sam’s Club’s $100 spread for 10.
- Beyond turkey, beef prices are up nearly 15% and canned goods face higher packaging costs, while President Trump rolled back some food tariffs last week that economists say may only slow increases; advisers urge shoppers to buy frozen, choose store brands, use retailer apps or coupons, and consider meal kits.