Overview
- The National Energy System Operator issued an Electricity Margin Notice for the 3pm–11pm peak on Tuesday expecting a shortfall of about 1,880 MW.
- NESO described the notice as a precautionary, routine tool and said there is no risk to customer supplies and no action is needed from households.
- Market data showed wind generation was revised sharply lower, about 40% below the previous forecast and near 25% of the seasonal average, which created the expected gap.
- Traders and operators reacted quickly so intraday wholesale prices for the 7pm–8pm delivery window spiked above £400 (about $530) per MWh and gas-fired plants were nominated to provide flexible backup.
- A similar notice issued earlier this week was cancelled after market participants provided extra capacity, showing the margin notice is meant to prompt short-term market fixes and that reliance on dispatchable gas raises the risk of further price volatility.