Overview
- The Q3 2025 investor letter discloses roughly -9% performance for both the quarter and year-to-date, with attribution to no direct AI exposure, no overlap with the S&P 500 or Russell 2000, and little ownership of small high-growth unprofitable stocks.
- Greenhaven highlights software valuation pressure, citing Altimeter data showing EV/next‑12‑month revenue for medium‑growth software falling from about 10.6x to 7.8x by Q3, which weighed on holdings such as Cellebrite.
- The fund more than doubled its stake in Hagerty in 2025 based on a thesis for significant earnings expansion driven by the State Farm partnership turning profitable, consolidation onto Duck Creek, and a return to historical loss ratios.
- Greenhaven defends its PAR Technology position despite a sharp late‑quarter share decline, pointing to Burger King expanding its use of PAR products and a record number of customer signings in Q3.
- On alternatives, the letter notes KKR shares are down as the group falls out of favor, while emphasizing that traditional private equity is about 22% of KKR’s AUM, and it updates Kingsway’s search‑acquisition strategy with the October hire of searcher Colton Hanson.