Overview
- The Nature Communications study forecasts a steep drop in coral cover through mid-century, with levels roughly halving by about 2040 as heat stress rises.
- If global warming stays below approximately 2°C, natural adaptation can keep pace, allowing many reefs to persist and gradually recover later in the century.
- On the current policy path of roughly 2.8°C, the model projects most reefs nearing collapse, with average coral cover around 4% by 2100.
- ReefMod-GBR simulates eco-evolutionary dynamics across 3,806 reefs and accounts for water quality, larval connectivity, cyclones, bleaching risk, and Crown-of-Thorns starfish outbreaks.
- Researchers identify cooler refugia, well-connected sites, and reductions in local stressors as high-impact management priorities, warning the window for meaningful action is rapidly closing.