Overview
- In a December research note, Grayscale rejects the strict four‑year halving cycle thesis and argues this cycle looks different without a blow‑off top.
- The firm says the recent 32% peak‑to‑trough decline is typical of bull‑market volatility, noting roughly 50 drawdowns of 10% or more since 2010 and nine meaningful dips since the 2022 bottom.
- Potential catalysts cited include a possible Federal Reserve rate cut at the Dec. 10 meeting, reports of a prospective Fed leadership change, bipartisan progress on crypto legislation, and continued ETF and digital‑asset treasury inflows.
- Grayscale also highlights expanding U.S. crypto exchange‑traded product access, including new XRP and Dogecoin offerings listed in November.
- At the time of reporting, Bitcoin had rebounded from its pullback and was trading in the high‑$80,000 to roughly $90,000 range.