Overview

• The thinktank estimates average household spending on petrol, gas and electricity could fall from about $5,800 today to roughly $3,000 by 2050, driven by electric vehicles, rooftop solar, batteries and electrification of appliances, with the largest savings in Victoria.
• Grattan recommends extending the safeguard mechanism to coal‑fired generators to keep emissions cuts on track, which it says would reduce projected household savings only marginally by about $100 a year in 2050.
• Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says the government has no plans to include electricity in the safeguard regime, pointing instead to delivery of the capacity investment scheme, Rewiring the Nation and a battery subsidy.
• The modelling expects wholesale electricity prices to rise to more than $100 per megawatt hour around 2035 as coal plants retire, yet notes bills would not double because wholesale costs make up less than 30% of a retail bill.
• Projected long‑term savings assume governments deliver new transmission and underwritten renewables, which face planning and construction risks highlighted alongside AEMO’s warning of rapid coal closures over the next decade.