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Grasberg Shutdown Deepens Copper Deficit, Triggers Forecast and Price Upgrades

Major forecasters now project the largest copper deficit since 2004 following Grasberg’s prolonged shutdown.

Employees work at a copper smelter in Yantai, Shandong province, China April 26, 2023. REUTERS/Siyi Liu/File Photo
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Overview

  • Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure and kept large parts of the Grasberg mine offline after a deadly Sept. 8 mudslide, with searches for missing workers continuing.
  • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates 591,000 tons of lost copper output through end-2026, shifting 2025 to roughly a 400,000-ton deficit.
  • Goldman Sachs moved its 2025 balance from a 105,000-ton surplus to a 55,500-ton deficit, while Société Générale flags the biggest shortfall since 2004.
  • Bank of America lifted its 2026 market deficit estimate to 350,000 tons and raised price forecasts to $11,313 per ton in 2026 and $13,500 in 2027.
  • Copper hit a 15-month high of $10,485 per ton last week as other disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente and low inventories reinforced the squeeze, lifting miner shares and ETFs.