Overview

• Freeport declared force majeure and halted block‑cave operations across the Grasberg district, with Big Gossan and Deep MLZ targeted to restart by mid‑Q4 2025 and a phased Grasberg Block Cave restart not expected until the first half of 2026.
• Management cut guidance, saying Q3 copper and gold sales will miss by about 4% and 6%, Q4 2025 output will be minimal, and 2026 production could be roughly 35% below prior plans, with pre‑incident rates only potentially returning in 2027.
• Goldman Sachs trimmed global mine‑supply growth forecasts and estimates a total 525,000‑ton loss across 2025–26, while Citi raised near‑term price targets and now models wider deficits as Grasberg output assumptions are cut.
• Copper prices climbed sharply, with LME three‑month contracts trading around $10,3xx–$10,5xx per ton, COMEX futures near $4.82–$4.88 per pound, and India’s MCX touching a record Rs 963.45 per kg on tightening supply.
• Freeport shares fell sharply this week as Scotiabank downgraded the stock and slashed earnings forecasts; the company is pursuing insurance claims with coverage up to $1 billion but underground incidents capped at $700 million after a $500 million deductible, and search and independent investigations continue.